NerdWallet study says Mitt Romney has a poor chance of winning
There’s no doubt that attacks on Mitt Romney by left-wing super PACs and nonprofit groups have been pushing Romney’s numbers down.
NerdWallet, which is a financial advice website, has a new study out saying Barack Obama has a –get this– 79.5 percent chance of winning reelection.
It has an 8.1 percent margin of error 70 days out from Election Day.
I don’t buy it but here’s the site’s reasoning.
Romney’s election odds: 19%
If current election polls are as accurate as historical polls, Mitt Romney has only a 19% chance of winning the presidential election.
Why are Romney’s chances so low?
Obama has 201 safe electoral votes. Romney has only 181. Only 12 states (156 electoral votes) could go to either candidate.
Therefore, Romney needs at least 89 of those 156 electoral votes to win (57%).
Given current polling in those states & historical polling accuracy, Romney’s statistical chance of getting those 89 votes is only 19%.
NerdWallet puts Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin in the Obama column. That may be a reasonable guess based on current poll numbers but I suspect those states and several others will soon begin to move in the direction of Romney.
Predicting what millions of people are going to do in the privacy of a voting booth is a fool’s errand, of course, but from looking at current polls I suspect that the Intrade forecast is more accurate. Intrade puts Obama’s chances at 55 percent versus Romney’s 44 percent.
But what do I know.